Arda Güler, The Magician
Real Madrid were 3-1 down at Roma. Arda Güler came off the bench in the 59th minute and set up two of the last three goals in a 4-3 Champions League win. Here is what he did, what his season numbers say and what it would take to enter the Ballon d'Or conversation.
On Wednesday night at the Stadio Olimpico, Real Madrid trailed Roma 3-1 with half an hour left. They won 4-3. The player who turned the match was not in the starting eleven: Arda Güler, 21, came on in the 59th minute and, from set pieces, set up the equaliser and the winner. Few players change a Champions League match from the bench the way he did.
Key findings
- Two assists in the last half hour. Güler set up Endrick's equaliser in the 85th minute and Antonio Rüdiger's winner in the 90th, both from corners.
- From 3-1 down to 4-3. Madrid scored three times in roughly the last eight minutes, through Carlos Espí, Endrick and Rüdiger, after Donyell Malen's second goal had put Roma two ahead.
- The ratings agree. He earned a 9/10 in post-match player ratings and an 8.3 match rating for about half an hour on the pitch.
- Creator first, scorer second. Among attacking midfielders and wingers he ranks in the 99th percentile for chances created, but only the 15th for goals.
- Still early. He is 21, valued at €108.6M, and his contract runs to June 2029.
The night in Rome
Roma started the better side. Marten de Roon scored in the 20th minute, Kylian Mbappé equalised in the 25th, and Donyell Malen then scored twice in six minutes after half-time to make it 3-1 to the hosts. Madrid's defensive structure was disorganised at that point, and Courtois, Konaté and Tchouaméni all had a difficult evening.
Around the hour José Mourinho changed the game from the bench, bringing on Güler and Endrick. Güler took over the delivery from set pieces, and Madrid's pressure grew straight away.
Espí scored just after the 80th minute, then Endrick equalised in the 85th from a Güler corner. In the 90th minute Rüdiger got ahead of his marker to meet another Güler delivery and score the winner. Madrid now have six points from two league-phase games, and Roma have one.
His season so far
Güler's numbers for Real Madrid this season look modest on paper: one goal and three assists in his seven most recent club appearances, mostly from the bench or in part-matches.
| Opponent | Date | Result | Minutes | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga | 30 Aug | Win 4-0 | 3 | 1 goal |
| Rayo Vallecano | 12 Sep | Win 4-1 | 18 | 1 assist |
| Roma | 14 Oct | Win 4-3 | 31 | 2 assists |
The underlying numbers show why Madrid keep using him: 28 chances created, 8 big chances created and 3.17 expected assists this season. His finishing is the gap: 12 shots and one goal from about 2.1 expected goals.
Is he a Ballon d'Or candidate?
The case for is about impact rather than volume. His chance-creation numbers are among the best of any attacking midfielder, he is 21, and Rome showed he can decide a Champions League match in half an hour. Since joining Madrid in July 2023 he has made 121 appearances and scored 19 goals.
The case against is just as concrete. Ballon d'Or voting tends to reward big goal and assist totals together with major trophies, and Güler has one goal and three assists this season. His finishing is below his chance quality, and he shares a squad with Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior and Jude Bellingham, which limits his minutes.
So the honest picture is that he is not among the Ballon d'Or favourites today. What he is, is a 21-year-old who has just played the kind of match that makes voters notice. If the minutes come and the goals follow, the conversation changes quickly. The next test is Sevilla in La Liga on Sunday 18 October.
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Source: FotMob
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